Lessons from the COVID-19 pandemic to strengthen NCD care and policy in humanitarian settings: a mixed methods study exploring humanitarian actors’ experiences. (preprint)

Background The COVID-19 pandemic and response severely impacted people living with non-communicable diseases (PLWNCDs) globally. It exacerbated pre-existing health inequalities, severely disrupted access to care, and worsened clinical outcomes for PLWNCDs, who were at higher risk of morbidity and mortality from the virus. The pandemic’s effects were likely magnified in humanitarian settings, where there were pre-existing gaps in continuity of care for non-communicable diseases (NCDs). We sought to explore factors affecting implementation of NCD care in crises settings during the COVID-19 pandemic and the adaptations made to support implementation.Methods Guided by the Consolidated Framework for Implementation Research, we undertook an online survey of 98 humanitarian actors from multiple regions and organization types (March-July 2021), followed by in-depth interviews with 13 purposively selected survey respondents (October-December, 2021). Survey data were analysed using descriptive statistics, while interview data were analysed both deductively and inductively.Results Initially, humanitarian actors faced challenges influenced by external actors’ priorities, such as deprioritisation of NCD care by governments, travel restrictions and supply chain interruptions. With each infection wave and lockdown, humanitarian actors were better able to adapt and maintain NCD services. The availability of COVID-19 vaccines was a positive turning point, especially for the risk management of people with NCDs and protection of health workers. Key findings include that, despite pre-existing challenges, humanitarian actors largely continued NCD services during the crisis. Enabling factors that supported continuity of NCD services included the ability to quickly pivot to remote means of communication with PLWNCDs, flexibility in medicine dispensing, and successful advocacy to prioritize NCD management within health systems. Key lessons learned included the importance of partnerships and cooperation with other health actors and the mobilisation or repurposing of community health workers/volunteer networks.Conclusions The COVID-19 experience should prompt national and global health stakeholders to strengthen inclusion of NCDs in emergency preparedness, response, and resilience planning, building on lessons learned around remote care provision adapted to PLWNCDs severity, integrating community health workers, providing context-adapted PLWNCDs information and combating misinformation and strengthening cross-sectoral partnerships.

How many are at increased risk of severe COVID-19 disease? Rapid global, regional and national estimates for 2020 (preprint)

Background The risk of severe COVID-19 disease is known to be higher in older individuals and those with underlying health conditions. Understanding the number of individuals at increased risk of severe COVID-19 illness, and how this varies between countries may inform the design of possible strategies to shield those at highest risk. Methods We estimated the number of individuals at increased risk of severe COVID-19 disease by age (5-year age groups), sex and country (n=188) based on prevalence data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study for 2017 and United Nations population estimates for 2020. We also calculated the number of individuals without an underlying condition that could be considered at-risk because of their age, using thresholds from 50-70 years. The list of underlying conditions relevant to COVID-19 disease was determined by mapping conditions listed in GBD to the guidelines published by WHO and public health agencies in the UK and US. We analysed data from two large multimorbidity studies to determine appropriate adjustment factors for clustering and multimorbidity. Results We estimate that 1.7 (1.0 - 2.4) billion individuals (22% [15-28%] of the global population) are at increased risk of severe COVID-19 disease. The share of the population at increased risk ranges from 16% in Africa to 31% in Europe. Chronic kidney disease (CKD), cardiovascular disease (CVD), diabetes and chronic respiratory disease (CRD) were the most prevalent conditions in males and females aged 50+ years. African countries with a high prevalence of HIV/AIDS and Island countries with a high prevalence of diabetes, also had a high share of the population at increased risk. The prevalence of multimorbidity (>1 underlying conditions) was three times higher in Europe than in Africa (10% vs 3%). Conclusion Based on current guidelines and prevalence data from GBD, we estimate that one in five individuals worldwide has a condition that is on the list of those at increased risk of severe COVID-19 disease. However, for many of these individuals the underlying condition will be undiagnosed or not severe enough to be captured in health systems, and in some cases the increase in risk may be quite modest. There is an urgent need for robust analyses of the risks associated with different underlying conditions so that countries can identify the highest risk groups and develop targeted shielding policies to mitigate the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic.